Fantastic Moon is the fourth best three-year-old stayer in the world!

20. Sep 2023

Chief handicapper Harald Siemen has reviewed Fantastic Moon's victory in the Prix Niel in his blog on the website of Deutscher Galopp.

About the handicap mark of 99 kilograms (RPS of 118) Siemen writes: "Some may have wondered why the victory did not result in a higher handicap mark. This is due to the - admittedly sometimes difficult to understand - logic of handicapping, in which all horses finishing in front are always taken into consideration. Assuming that the Grand Prix de Paris winner and runner-up Feed The Flame had finished several lengths ahead of the third-placed horse, it would have been conceivable for Fantastic Moon to jump to the 100 kg mark or even just over it. However, he finished only half a length ahead of the 90.5 kg horse Bravais and a good three lengths ahead of Greenland, who had previously delivered a reliable 94 kg in four consecutive races. The international handicappers all agreed that Greenland had to win the race, with the result that Fantastic Moon finished with 99 kg. That is exactly the mark he had already achieved when he won the German Derby."

pastedGraphic.pngNow here comes the "but." The mark lifts Fantastic Moon to a more than respectable fourth place in the world rankings, if one only considers the three-year-old stayers. Siemen: "A rating of 118 is an above-average value for the Prix Niel. Only twice in the last ten years has the winner achieved a higher rating (Cracksman 121, New Bay 119). If the current world ranking list is restricted to three-year-old stayers (2200 metres and over), Fantastic Moon's mark currently puts him in fourth place behind Auguste Rodin, King of Steel and the Japanese Oaks winner Liberty Island. Further improvement is desirable and conceivable."

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